After many months of regular season and conference tournament play, and 62 (or 66 if you count the first four) games in the March Madness tournament, we have arrived at the pinnacle of college basketball, the National Championship game.
The Final Four gave us two super exciting games, with Florida and Auburn being a back-and-forth contest where Florida was able to pull away late, and Houston and Duke showed us an incredible comeback from the Cougars. I went 1-1 on these games, as I chose Florida and Duke, but Duke’s collapse ends up making my overall record 49-13, needing to get this choice right to hit the 50 correct guesses mark.
Now we have our National Championship, The Florida Gators vs The Houston Cougars. The champions of the SEC vs the champions of the Big 12. In the biggest game of them all, I believe to have seen the future. I know who will win this game.
Taking a look at these teams’ paths to get here, both teams had a similar trajectory, 3 of their 5 games played so far were down to the wire close games, and 2 were blowouts. Both teams have won by just doing what they do best.
Walter Clayton Jr. for the Gators has just been unbelievable. His ability to take over games with his shooting ability has been spectacular, and one of the most entertaining things to watch. In their Final Four game against Auburn, Walter Clayton Jr. had an incredible 34 points on an even more impressive 11-18 shooting and 7-7 from the free throw line. This dude is showing the world that he is one of, if not the best player in college basketball this season.
Another guy for Florida who had himself a great finish for the Gators is someone I mentioned in my last article, Thomas Haugh. In 25 minutes off the bench, Haugh posted 12 points, and hit the game sealing and-one to bring Florida to their first National Title game since 2007, which is when they became back-to-back champs. Big credit to second-year head coach Todd Golden to help coach his team back into a National Title game.
Florida had to face some hardship in this one, as they went into the locker room down by eight. They once again had their backs against the wall, and they did what got them to this game, dominate in the clutch. In the first five minutes of play, Florida went on a 13-3 run to take the lead, and then the game was constant back and forth, teams making shots constantly. It was 69-68 with 2:30 to go, until Clayton Jr. took over, scoring and assisting on 9 of their final 10 points, and pulled away from Auburn, winning 79-73.
As for Houston, they looked like they were out of it for a lot of the game. Duke kept a consistent lead over the Cougars, and it looked to be the end of Houston’s run. But Kelvin Benjamin and the Cougars are never out of a game with their top-notch defense. With 10:31 to go, Cooper Flagg hit a jumper to make the score 58-45 in favor of Duke. For the rest of the game, Houston allowed only ONE field goal.
Houston had their backcourt L.J. Cryer and Emanuel Sharp combine for 42, and in a game where I said they would have to outperform Duke’s Tyrese Proctor and Kon Knueppel, they delivered. I truly saw those two players as the x-factors for the Blue Devils, and although Knueppel finished with 16, he only had four points in the second half. Tyrese Proctor only scored seven as well and shot a poor 2-8. In a game where Duke needed good shooting performances, Houston forced lots of missed shots. One of the big things I noticed in this game for Houston was their excellent rebounding. The Cougars outrebounded Duke 42-31 and were able to limit Duke on the offensive boards.
In the end of this game, Duke still held a six-point lead with just around 30 seconds to go. In those final thirty, the trend of the game went: Houston three, steal on the inbound, Houston tip in, missed free throw and a foul from Duke, two make free throws from Houston, and then Cooper Flagg missed the game winning shot, and L.J. Cryer sealed the game with a fair of free throws. In a matter of such little time, Houston outscored Duke 9-0, and won 70-67.
The matchup we have at hand is going to be a game where it depends on who can stay consistent more. Can Florida’s high-powered offense keep the wheels running against Houston? Can Houston slow them down and make Florida’s offense come to a halt? It all comes down to 3 key things.
The first thing is the big matchup of Walter Clayton Jr. vs L.J. Cryer, and which one will be able to outperform the other. Cryer is great, and is a good on-ball defender, but this whole tournament he hasn’t had to guard someone who is scoring with ease like Clayton Jr. is. In this tournament, Walter Clayton Jr. is averaging 24.6 points and on 50% shooting. In the last two games against great competition, L.J. Cryer, who primarily defended Tennessee’s Zakai Zeigler and Duke’s Tyrese Proctor, in which he only allowed an average of 6 points per game with 3-17 shooting combined. Whoever can outduel the other will likely be the reason either team hoists the trophy.
Another thing to look at is the battle of the second options, Alijah Martin from Florida and Emmanuel Sharp from Houston. 17 points came from Martin and 16 from Sharp in their Final Four games, and both players are giving their team double digits a game. The matchup could be interesting to watch, and I think Martin has the slight edge, but mostly because of his rebounding ability.
The final reason in which I think will sway the outcome of this title game is who performs better between Houston’s J’Wan Roberts and Florida’s Rueben Chinyelu. This is the matchup down low I could be anticipating between the two groups of starters, and both players had themselves great days on the glass in their Final Four wins. Roberts brought down 12 boards, and Chinyelu brought down 9. It is pretty crazy to see, but both teams’ key rebounders average 7.4 rebounds a game in the tournament, so the player that wins the rebounding battle while both players are on the court can lead to victory.
As for my prediction, this is really hard for me to choose. The saying “defense wins championships” is such a reliable thing to look at and just easily pick Houston, but they needed Duke to basically shoot themselves out the game by only making 1 field goal in the final 10 minutes. Florida just keeps looking better and better and Walter Clayton Jr. and Alijah Martin look elite. Houston’s wins are very reliant on their backcourt, and they know face arguably the best backcourt of the tournament, and that worries me when looking at Houston. That alongside Florida’s ability to rely heavily on their sixth man in Thomas Haugh to make clutch shots gives me the feeling that the Gators are suited to win the National Championship.
With all that being said, I believe the trophy is coming back to Gainesville for the first time in 18 years. The Florida Gators are going to be the 2024-2025 NCAA Men’s Basketball National Champions.
Bryce Norwood can be reached at arg-sports@uidaho.edu