As America gears up for its 60th presidential election, a new contender with a familiar name has emerged onto the scene: Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. Running as a third-party, independent candidate, Kennedy is making an unexpectedly strong showing in early polls, catching the attention not only of voters but also of his fellow candidates.
Across five national polls released in both March and April, Kennedy received an average of 13% support when his name was included in the survey question. This may not sound like a large portion, but when compared to another independent candidate Cornel West and Green Party candidate Jill Stein, their average was closer to 3% each.
Donald Trump and President Joe Biden are currently in a deadlock in many surveys, meaning that Kennedy’s support could prove crucial to the election’s outcome. However, historical precedent has suggested that third-party and independent candidates’ election performances hardly ever satisfy their polling numbers.
Let’s take Gary Johnson as an example. Johnson was the 2016 Libertarian nominee for president. Similar to Kennedy and his fellow nominees today, the two major party runners, Hillary Clinton and Trump, were not very popular. However, after Trump succeeded in the 2016 election, many people believed that if Johnson was not in the race, his supporters would have voted for Clinton over Trump. Johnson polled at an average of 8% and frequently registered in the double digits but ended up only getting 3% when it came to Election Day.
Now, there is no way for us to know how much Kennedy’s polling will change from now until the election, but if he ends up with a similar case as Johnson, it could have a great effect on the presidential results. If Kennedy does take votes from either Biden or Trump, it could tip the balance of the election like many claimed in 2016. The question then arises: Who should be more worried about Kennedy’s candidacy?
In the political realm, trying to assess the impact of candidates often involves many variables. When a new contender emerges, the name can have a large impact on the way people view a candidate. The name Kennedy carries a legacy of American political history, but seeing as Kennedy is running as an Independent, it’s important to review the dynamics of both the Republican and Democratic parties.
Trump is a Republican figure who reshaped the party in his image. He has a large base of supporters whose loyalty remains unwavering. While his grip on the Republican Party seems firm, there are many Republicans who remain ambivalent or even opposed to Trump. Kennedy could potentially appeal to these undecided voters, tilting the scales away from the main Republican candidate.
On the other hand, Biden has been facing both internal and external pressures as president. Though his support base remains at large, Kennedy’s presence might awaken progressive factions within the Democratic Party that align with Kennedy’s promises. His appeal to the younger voters could potentially divert attention away from Biden, seeing as the youth who are extremely likely to votes this election are likely to vote a Democratic candidate.
When weighing the potential threats posed by Kennedy to both sides, it seems that his impact will be more pronounced in the Democratic camp. Although his favorability ratings are higher among Republicans, Kennedy began running in the Democratic primary and most of his admirers also hold a favorable view of Trump, according to a Quinnipiac University poll from last year. This makes it seem tough for Trump supporters to vote for Kennedy, even if they like what he says.
However, the likelihood of Kennedy winning the presidency remains slim. The dominance of the two-party system in American politics presents a formidable barrier to third-party candidates. Many voters feel discouraged from supporting alternative candidates, fearing that their votes might be wasted on someone who has little chance of winning. It is sad but true.
Despite this, there is a significant dissatisfaction with the major-party candidates, with an unusually high 29% of U.S. adults expressing support for neither Trump nor Biden. With the race between Biden and Trump still neck-and-neck, neither side can afford to dismiss the potential impact of Kennedy potentially siphoning votes away from them. As the election draws nearer, only time will tell how Kennedy’s candidacy will ultimately shape the outcome. Until then, both the Trump and Biden camps would be wise to keep a close eye on this Independent Party challenger and the potential disruptions he may bring to the presidential election.
Presley Zimmerman can be reached at [email protected]