We made it to the endgame. The last game of the 2023-2024 season is upon us, and of course, I predicted it correctly. No. 1 UConn, the defending national champions, look to keep their dominant streak and go back-to-back, face No. 1 Purdue, a team determined to make up for their first round exit last season and raise the trophy just one year later.
After doing my own research, I am here to crown your 2024 National Champions just a little bit early.
Let’s break down both teams, and talk about how they got here, starting with UConn. The Huskies are 36-3, going 18-2 in Big East Conference play. UConn just beat Alabama at their own game 86-72, simply outscoring the Crimson Tide. This UConn team has looked destined to bring themselves back to the big dance since the start of the season, beating many non-conference teams who made the tournament, like Gonzaga, Texas and UNC.
UConn’s three loses came to Kansas, Creighton and Seton Hall, in which these three games all had a common factor for UConn, they could not shoot from behind the arc, committed too many fouls and lost the turnover battle. UConn’s team is almost a near perfect basketball squad, so getting them to struggle on the fundamentals of the game is how you beat them, which we have seen.
The Huskies have five players all averaging more than 10 points a game, and they pride themselves on having a team with no true one-star player. Purdue will have their hands full tonight, as this UConn team has players to matchup very well with everyone in the Boilermaker starting five.
As for Purdue, the Boilermakers are 34-4, going 17-3 in Big Ten Conference play. They just came off a 63-50 win over No. 11 NC State and were able to limit the abilities of star forward DJ Burns on the Wolfpack. Purdue is best known for their player of the year frontrunner Zach Edey, the 7’4” giant who looks to win back-to-back POTY’s for the first time since Ralph Sampson did it in 1982-83.
Edey isn’t alone, however, as Purdue has three more players averaging double digits. When I looked into Purdue’s losses, they tend to lose in the same fashion as UConn, making them lose their fundamentals. These two teams we are watching really embody the two best teams in basketball, and seeing how the game will unfold is going to be legendary.
As for the matchup itself, the biggest thing to watch is the battle between centers. UConn’s Donovan Clingan has been hitting his stride in the tournament, being a force on both sides of the ball. Clingan is going to be the best center Edey will have faced this March, in a battle between two seven footers.
Keys to Victory
UConn: The Huskies will be able to walk out of Phoenix with a win if they are able to simply do two big things, limit Edey and limit the three. We have talked about Zach Edey enough. All you need to do is be physical enough to not foul him but contest his shots, but I am more concerned about the three. Purdue is shooting more than 40% from behind the arc this season, which is second in the entire nation. If UConn struggles to defend against the spacing of the Boilermakers, they will give up too many threes and lose the game.
Purdue: For the Boilermakers to win this game, they must cause turnovers for UConn, and have more steals and blocks (STOCKS). STOCKS is something that UConn is near the top of the nation in, as they average more than six steals and almost six blocks a game. Clingan is their primary shot blocker, averaging 2.5 a game. For Purdue, Zach Edey averages 2.2 blocks a game, but the rest of the team only averages 1.6.
If they can find the weak spots in UConn’s offense, they will be able to get more STOCKS, and that will feed into the turnover battle, which is huge. UConn is also one of the best in the country at being safe with the basketball, averaging less than 10 turnovers a game. If Purdue wants to be crowned champs, they need to cause turnovers.
The Champion
Now it is time for my prediction.
This one is going to be one of the better national championships in recent years, and in a clash between titans, I don’t see the No. 1 overall seed losing this game. The UConn Huskies are going to be your 2024 National Champions.
Bryce Norwood can be reached at [email protected]