With the continuing escalation of the Ukraine crisis this past week, four University of Idaho professors tackled its complexities in a panel discussion Thursday.
The same day, Russia launched its invasion into the neighboring country. Ukraine shares its North and East borders with Russia where 100,000 soldiers were mobilized.
The talk hosted nearly 150 participants over Zoom with more attending in person as the crisis became increasingly apparent.
Associate Professor of Political Science Florian Justwan explained that Ukraine is a polarized country with two regions that vote for different political parties.
Eastern Ukraine has a Russian-speaking population who tend to have pro-Russian sentiments. Western Ukraine tends to lean towards other Western nations instead.
In 2014, Ukraine saw a popular revolution with the overthrow of its pro-Russian president. At the same time, Russia annexed Crimea and incited separatist movements in Eastern Ukraine.
Since then, Ukraine has seen closer relations with the European Union and NATO, despite not being a member.
If Ukraine were to become a member, it would be a threat to Russia’s security.
“If a country joins NATO, it very explicitly turns away from Russia,” Justwan explained. “The motive here for the current Ukraine crisis is to stop NATO expansion and undermine this Western expansion.”
Erin Damman, clinical assistant professor for the International Studies Program, covered the basics of international law for understanding Ukraine and Russia’s positions.
Russian President Vladimir Putin is committing a crime of aggression, violating the United Nations Charter with an invasion. While this is a blatant transgression, there are few responses available for the international community according to Damman.
Despite Russia’s aggression against Ukraine, Putin has been arguing self-defense against NATO and Ukraine.
“We know most of the things (Putin’s) saying aren’t accurate, but they aren’t the ramblings of some dictator,” Damman said. “They are meant to plant doubt.”
Damman explained that NATO, a symbol of western nations, serves as a threat against Russia and its culture with the organization’s potential expansion. Having Ukraine join NATO would grow the westernized organization’s reach and get rid of Russia’s buffer.
Ukraine has a population of Russian-speaking people and has been accused of genocide.
“A lot of the things we hear coming out of the Kremlin are not accurate,” Justwan added. “However some of the things Putin is saying show Russia’s larger motive here.”
With Russia’s actions, Putin aims to undermine Ukraine’s identity as a sovereign state, even though they are recognized by the U.N.
Professor of Political Science Lisa Carlson presented some ideas as to why Russia’s attacks were happening now.
Historically, Russia has used its continuation of dictatorial control, leader after leader, to expand its territory. At the same time, Russians have needed a reason to justify this dictatorial control at home. According to Carlson, Putin is acting like past leaders.
“How the Russians have always justified (it)… by finding an external enemy,” Carlson said.
Another reason for the invasion may be Putin strategizing to divert from other things going on. This could be him going after an external threat instead of addressing internal conflict in Russia.
He could also be gambling for his power, with the next Russian elections coming up in 2024.
“We shouldn’t be surprised that when he went on the escalatory ladder that he didn’t back down,” Carlson said. “Putin, in some ways, has been making it up as he goes.”
Charles Dainoff, clinical assistant professor of political science, explained the complexities of economic ties between nations.
With globalization, every state has a dependence on economic interactions with other states for their stability. For example, the U.S. relies on oil producers for imports. Powerful states can use this interdependency against weaker ones.
In this case, the U.S. is the only nation with enough resources to do this to Russia. According to Dainoff, the U.S. can monitor and restrict almost every financial transaction in the world through its banks.
Considering the evolving situation, professors had different takes on what may come out of the conflict.
“It may lead to the same thing after Afghanistan,” Carlson said. “This is Putin playing out what Putin plays out.”
Carlson saw it as a positive sign that like-minded countries are mobilizing as a united front against an aggressor like Russia.
“I’m not too concerned that this will be a paradigm,” Carlson said. “They are absolutely dysfunctional economically.”
If handled poorly, Dainoff foresaw some serious consequences of the conflict.
“If we choose not to counter the threat being imposed right now, the system (of Democracy) will deconstruct,” Dainoff said.
Claims of Ukraine targeting Russian people have been making their rounds on some U.S. media. The professors saw this as an unfounded rumor, attributing it to the ideas being spread by Putin.
“(Russia is) strategically placing these pieces of misinformation,” Justwan said. “When you follow the news about the Ukraine crisis, fact check more than you usually do.”
A different form of war that has many concerned is cyberwarfare.
“The cyberwar is already happening, and it’s not just Russia,” Dainoff said.
The U.S. has seen cases of hacking in the past, even getting through to government websites. Back in 2017, hackers hit the Idaho State Treasurer’s Office website, taking over the page with an ‘I love Islamic State’ message.
“How do you attack a hacker?” Carlson questioned.
Haadiya Tariq can be reached at [email protected] or on Twitter @haadiyatariq