The Gonzaga men’s team is undoubtedly the most successful basketball squad to come out of the western states in the recent past, culminating in 2017’s trip to the final.
The Zags may be a vastly different team 24 months later, but Mark Few and co. are the top seed in the West with a matchup against Fairleigh Dickinson coming up on Thursday. We can’t pretend like there is any way to predict exactly what will happen in this year’s tournament, but a closer look can provide some insight into how Spokane’s finest might find themselves back in the Final Four and beyond.
Jonah Baker
This year’s team made its bed through ruthless efficiency on offense. The Bulldogs led the country in field goal percentage at a 53.2 percent clip from the floor and they also were fourth in nation with 18 assists per game. The Bulldogs should have been hamstrung without junior forward Killian Tillie for the entirety of non-conference play and an additional seven games in the heart of WCC play, but the continued ascendance of junior forwards Rui Hachimura and Brandon Clarke kept the Bulldogs afloat. Tillie returned to the lineup for the WCC tournament, but a mere 14 points and seven rebounds over two games is not enough to allow for Hachimura and Clarke to take anything off the gas pedal.
Like any team, Gonzaga’s highest highs and lowest lows from this season can tell us the most about how they will perform in the NCAA tournament. Take for example their win against Duke in mid-November. The Blue Devils ended the season as the heaviest favorite since the 2014-15 Karl-Anthony Towns-led Kentucky Wildcats and they still lost at full strength to the Bulldogs on a neutral court. In spite of 20-plus-point performances from Zion Williamson and RJ Barrett, Gonzaga held built a 10-point lead by halftime and traded blows with the best team in the nation to hold on for an 89-87 win. The Bulldogs converted a ridiculous 52.6 percent of their 3-pointers, and Few’s focus on using a short bench (only eight players recorded meaningful minutes) could be the exact blueprint Gonzaga needs in high-octane matchups past the first round.
Gonzaga’s losses are just as telling. Losses to top seeds Tennessee and North Carolina cannot be overlooked, but it seemed as if the team overcame their shortcomings at the end of the season. A 13-point loss to Saint Mary’s challenged everything, especially the belief the Bulldogs had an offense that simply could not be stopped.
The loss will turn out either to be a wake-up call or harbinger, but Gonzaga’s first round matchup with Fairleigh Dickinson points more towards the former. The Knights may have the emotional high of already securing a win in the First Four, but they are no UMBC. Over the course of the regular season in a very mediocre Northeast Conference, Fairleigh Dickinson managed only a +4.5 point differential. Gonzaga had the best point differential in the country by a mile at +23.7 thanks in large part to the WCC, but that is more than enough of a reason to believe the Bulldogs will not end up like last year’s Virginia squad as a one seed to fall.
A second round matchup with Syracuse seems likely, as Jim Boeheim’s mythical 2-3 zone seems to all but guarantee at least one tournament win for the Orange each year. However, stingy defense alone will probably not be enough to send Gonzaga home. Even against a zone, there is no way that Gonzaga will go 2-17 from three again, like they did against Saint Mary’s. Syracuse also failed to impress against top competition after a 95-91 win against Duke in mid-January. The Orange lost to North Carolina, Virginia and Duke (twice), and they also lost to a North Carolina State team that had as much of a case for an NCAA bid as Syracuse.
If the Zags move into the Sweet Sixteen, there are a couple keys that almost always decide which team is going to take the advantage. Gonzaga’s consistency throughout the year will be key in a likely matchup with Florida State, and having veteran leadership in the likes of Hachimura, Clarke and senior Josh Perkins could help Gonzaga pull out of any hole the Seminoles put them in. In fact, there may be no factor more important than experience when it comes to making a run at the title.
Each of the past three title winning teams had a strong veteran presence, much like Gonzaga’s starting lineup consisting of three juniors, one senior and one sophomore. Having Perkins as a holdover from 2017’s near-championship team is a massive boost for whenever this team finds itself in trouble.
As stated, it’s impossible to predict exactly where that trouble will come from, but if Gonzaga manages to defeat Michigan or Buffalo to get out of the West, all that would stand between them and a first championship would be a couple blue blood programs. Few’s team has the right mix of NBA talent and experience to match up with anyone, meaning that this really could be the year that the Bulldogs get over the hump for good.
Jonah Baker can be reached at [email protected] or on Twitter @jonahpbaker