Danish Ambassador Rolf Holmboe stressed the complexity of the Middle Eastern conflict during his speech Tuesday at this year”s Martin Forum.
The Visiting Practitioners of International Affairs is held annually by the Martin Institute and provides a forum for experts to exchange ideas with an audience.
According to the Martin Institute, Holmboe earned a Master”s degree in political science and a supplementary degree in Arabic studies from Aarhus University in Denmark. He began working as a career diplomat in 1992, and has been on temporary leave from the Danish Foreign Service since October 2015. During that time he has worked as an independent consultant and Middle East expert. Holmboe has worked with political and development interventions in fragile states and taught conflict studies.
Holmboe”s speech dealt primarily with the conflict in Syria. ISIS, Holmboe said, is in crisis. He said that ISIS”s internal cohesion is weak with its extremist views create external and internal enemies, and the balance between attraction and repression is tipping. He said he believes there can be a victory over ISIS in Syria after a political solution is reached.
“What will need to go into a peace process, into a political solution, so it”s not just an empty shell that cannot be implemented from the ground, but rather a sustainable solution that can be implemented and can lead to some kind of stability?” Holmboe asked.
The process, Holmboe said, will take a long time – about 30 to 50 years.
One of the main challenges of forming this political solution is that there isn”t just one conflict, Holmboe said, but several overlapping conflicts going on in Syria. He said Syria is fragmented into at least five entities. There are also the radical groups, such as ISIS, that pose a threat. Holmboe said ISIS wants to sabotage the peace process because if the rebels and regime unite, ISIS will be destroyed.
He said he believes that there will be more terrorism after ISIS disintegrates because it”ll be more spread out.
Holmboe said he remains hopeful about the situation in Syria due to what he has seen from the youth there.
“You have youth who I call “the Third Way,”” Holmboe said. “In-between the sides, who have engaged in trying to mitigate the effects of the conflict on normal Syrians.”
These youth have joined volunteer organizations, such as The White Helmets, who help victims of bombings and soldiers from both sides of the conflict, and Holmboe said their work is purely humanitarian. He said the youth still maintain a positive outlook on Syria”s future.
“If you read the media, there is a very black and white approach to the standing of many things, to understanding the regime and the rebels to understanding what is good, what is bad,” Holmboe said. “When you look at it from the region itself, there is no black and white, it is a grey world you look in – sometimes you find some rays of hope, and you find some reasons for optimism.”
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