It”s July. The sky is blue and the rolling hills of the Palouse contrast a vibrant green. In the sweltering heat of summer, a bead of sweat rolls down the forehead of a farmer. He must wonder if it”s actually getting warmer, or if it”s just his imagination.
Local researchers believe they have answered that question. Researchers of the Regional Approaches to Climate Change project (REACCH) claim to have found significant climate warming in the Pacific Northwest.
The REACCH project is a 5-year, 20 million dollar interdisciplinary effort made up of a team of scientists from three major regional universities, including University of Idaho Oregon State University and Washington State University. Sanford Eigenbrode, the project director and University of Idaho entomologist, said cereal production systems are the focus of the project.
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“So in this part of the world, that means wheat and a little bit of barley,” he said.
The project is part of the USDA”s overreaching project on climate variability and change. Every year, Eigenbrode said they take grant proposals to address aspects of this problem.
In 2010, the USDA put out a call for big, multi-institutional regional grants, specifically for one dealing with wheat production. To answer this call the REACCH project was born, a young idea built on long-standing regional research collaborations.
In a way, the REACCH project is unique and truly the first of its kind, Eigenbrode said.
The human component
Jenny Gray is a socioeconomic researcher based in Coeur d”Alene. She studies what factors go into farmers” decision-making, as well as the impact these decisions have on climate change and economics.
In 2012, the team conducted a survey of famers” beliefs and values. Using this data, they found that some farmers believed climate change is human-caused, but many others didn”t.
Bigger than attributions, however, is the fact that their beliefs impact the economics and biology of global warming, Gray said.
“We”re finding that there are a lot of implications – that it”s all kind of connected,” she said.
Gray said the economic impacts have an effect on more than just the Pacific Northwest. The cereal industry of this region is a huge economic component of the worldwide economy, and much of the wheat grown there is exported to Pacific Rim countries. Global warming has the potential to impact global supplies, Gray said.
Gray said she is studying the connection of those who are managing land production and the global economy.
“We”re looking at the human component that intersects between agriculture and global warming,” Gray said.
A bit fruity and a bit nutty
While the future of cereal crops in the northwest is still up in the air, things are looking up for fruit and nut trees. Lauren Parker, a UI doctoral candidate, is studying the way climate change impacts general agriculture.
“Though the REACCH project mainly studies cereal crops, I”ve taken a little bit of a different approach,” Parker said. “I”ve been interested in what alternative crops might be able to be cultivated in the northwest under climate change scenarios.”
Parker has a particular interest in fruit and nut crops, which are perennial, meaning they grow from year to year. Unlike most cereal crops, these are mainly trees that grow over long periods of time, and cannot be replaced within a year.
So far, Parker and her team have noticed changes in extreme cold winter temperatures.
“Under climate change there will be a warming of these extreme cold temperatures,” Parker said. “The warming of these temperatures may allow for over-winter survival of some perennial crops.”
Parker said this could be a positive thing for the industry – still, it”s all about tradeoffs, she said.
Though warming winter temperatures can be good for expanding the geographic distribution of some crops, those same warming temperatures can also allow more generations of pests.
Warming winter temperatures also lead to warming summer temperatures. The higher summer temperatures can cause heat stress to the plants, Parker said. The water that”s necessary to grow the crops may increase, although those crops might be able to make it through a milder winter.
“You”re gonna win some, you”re gonna lose some,” she said.
It’s bugging us
Climate change isn”t just affecting the plants. Eigenbrode said he has found many things about the insect system here through the REACCH project. He”s been able to make some projections about the cereal leaf beetle, a major wheat pest.
In the future, the beetle should thrive more than it is currently, which would mean more pressure on wheat, Eigenbrode said.
Other work on the project, in collaboration with Utah State University, has been done on the parasitoid, a predator to the cereal leaf beetle. However, Eigenbrode said climate change projects bad news for this beetle-suppressing organism.
“It suggests that this (cereal leaf) beetle, which is right now a minor pest, could be a serious issue,” he said.
With downscaled climate models, he said they are able to map out these trends and expectations to research the potential problem. To do this, Eigenbrode and his team put the beetles in chambers with elevated carbon dioxide and temperatures.
They found in some places the feeding of the beetle will become more aggressive, and in other places, less. Like many of the issues caused by climate change, this one isn”t as black and white as it first seems.
Borrowed Time
Though the project was originally supposed to conclude after five years, REACCH has been granted a sixth.
“This will allow us to get more of the word out, to start an extension component,” said Eigenbrode.
Each department of researchers is ready to make use of this extra time. Overall, the project is working on an international collaborative component. Eigenbrode said they are already attending a conference, and they are also seeking to partner with other organizations on a global level also in arid wheat production zones, similar to the Palouse region, he said.
Gray”s team will conduct a follow-up survey to the one conducted in 2012. This will allow them to analyze and compare the results and to see how beliefs have changed over time. Even after the conclusion of the REACCH project, Gray noted that her team will continue its research into the socio-economic effects of climate change.
All in all, the research is just beginning. Past the project, many of the researchers have plans to continue analysis due to the broad nature of climate change.
“The secret is when we started this grant, it wasn”t at all clear what the future of the effort would be beyond the five years,” said Eigenbrode, “Six years is pretty cool, but ten years would”ve been even better.”
Interdisciplinary futures
Whether it is agriculture, outreach, biology or socioeconomics, the project spans more than just one group. Eigenbrode, for one, said he hopes this interdisciplinary structure is the way to conduct business in the future.
“Agricultural systems are big systems, that have all these moving parts,” he said, “They should be worked on together in a collaborative way.”
The USDA, however, is unsure if this is still the way to operate. Though the REACCH project has given no foundation to these fears, they are wary of high costs and low results in the future, Eigenbrode said.
Eigenbrode isn”t swayed by their concerns. Though he admits there are tradeoffs, he can see the value of balance. According to him, if that much money was spent on that many small grants in the past it could have been more infused into the scientific research community. However, there were clear benefits in the results by creating such a large integrated program.
By the numbers
+1.3 F
observed winter
temperature changeat +5.2 F
there will be increased water runoff
+1.3 F
observed spring
temperature changeat +5 F
there will be earlier plant maturation
+1.2 F
observed summer temperature change
at +6 F
there will be increased heat stress
+12%
observed spring
precipitation changeat 5%
there will be increased potential water-logged soil.
-3%
observed summer precipitation change
at -9%
there will be
increased drought stress
Carly Scott can be reached at [email protected]