Last march, a room inside the Kibbie Dome erupted in cheers when it was shown that Idaho’s WAC Champion women’s basketball team would have to travel across the country to take on a No. 1 seeded UConn team that was basically already penciled into the Final Four. That little caveat didn’t matter much, the fact that Idaho was in was enough reason for celebration, which that day very much was.
These days, expectations might be a little higher. Provided, Idaho still has a second-consecutive Western Athletic Conference Tournament to win before it truly secures its place in the NCAA Tournament, but the prospects the team would have in the NCAA Tournament look to be more favorable than a year ago.
Having ripped its way through the WAC with a 10-0 record, and standing at least two-games ahead of anybody else in the nine-team conference, Idaho has emerged as a clear favorite to take the conference tournament crown.
Their 15-7 record against Division-I opponents and 10-0 conference record has sky-rocketed the Vandals in a ranking that is important in the NCAA Tournament seeding process — RPI.
RPI is a ratings system used by the selection committees in the men’s and women’s game to determine at-large bids and the seeding among the lower seeds placed.
Last year Idaho entered the Tournament with the second-lowest RPI among the field of 64, at No. 131 and was put as a 16-seed.
Coming into conference play in 2014 Idaho fielded a similarly low RPI, but that 10-game winning streak has Idaho vaulted up to an RPI of 79 as of Feb. 10.
Based on that ranking, Idaho is looking far past a 16-seed, and as high as a 13-seed. Perhaps even a 12-seed?
Let’s take a look at precedents from the last three NCAA Tournaments as for hints as to where Idaho could be seeded should it repeat as conference tournament seedings.
First, a few important things to remember. RPI is not the end-all, be-all. The S-Curve that the selection committee comes up with (its ranking of all the teams 1-64) is more important, but RPI is used as a huge guideline toward developing that S-Curve. Strength of schedule is also taken strongly into account by the committee, sometimes more so than the RPI calculation does. And lastly, travel considerations and avoiding regular-season re-matches in the opening round are also taken into consideration — These are called “procedural bumps.”
Let’s get into it. Teams, their seeds and their RPI ranks.
16-Seeds
2013: Idaho – 131, Prairie View A&M – 194, UT-Martin – 105, Tulsa – 94
2012: UC Santa Barbara – 167, Hampton 63, Liberty 95, Prairie View A&M – 219
2011: Hartford – 154, Stetson – 197, UC Davis – 98, Prairie View A&M – 116
Worst – 2012 Prairie View A&M – 219
Best – 2013 Tulsa – 94
15-Seeds
2013: Navy – 102, Hampton – 79, Oral Roberts 93, Fresno State – 76
2012: UT-Martin – 105, Samford – 103, Navy – 188, McNeese St. – 82
2011: South Dakota St. – 121, McNeese St. – 88, Utah – 127, UT-Martin – 94
Worst – 2012 Navy – 188
Best – 2013 Fresno State – 76
14-Seeds
2013: Stetson – 91, Cal Poly – 75, Wichita State – 58, Albany – 57
2012: UA-Little Rock – 94, Creighton – 75, Albany – 80, Idaho State – 67
2011: Navy – 141, Gardner-Webb – 134, Montana – 147, Samford – 75
Worst – 2011 Montana – 147
Best – 2013 Albany – 57
13-Seeds
2013: Liberty – 60, Montana – 63, South Dakota St. – 61, Quinnipiac – 40
2012: Sacred Heart – 51, South Dakota St. – 58, Marist – 43, UTEP – 44
2011: St. Francis (PA) – 67, UCF – 48, Hampton – 74, Northern Iowa – 29
Worst – 2011 Hampton – 74
Best – 2011 Northern Iowa – 29
12-Seeds
2013: Middle Tenn. St. – 42, Gonzaga – 31, Kansas – 56, Marist – 43
2012: Fresno State – 65, Eastern Michigan – 49, Florida Gulf Coast – 60, San Diego State – 93
2011: Princeton – 58, Bowling Green – 36, Fresno State – 45, UA-Little Rock – 46
Worst – 2012 San Diego State – 93
Best – 2013 Gonzaga – 31
– Notable precedents
2013 Fresno State. In its first season in the Mountain West, the Bulldogs finished 23-8 as the third best RPI team in the conference. Beating Wyoming and top-50 RPI San Diego State in the conference tournament got Fresno State sneaking in as an auto-bid.
2013 Stetson took Fresno State’s 14-seed. They had a worse strength of schedule and a lower RPI. But, won five straight including over No. 51 Florida Gulf Coast to take its conference tournament. That might have been a procedural bump.
2013 Albany might have the best precedent for Idaho. The Great Danes went 18-0 in conference and went 27-3 overall, finished with an RPI of 57 and a SoS of 275. They won 19 straight games to finish the season, including five wins over top-100 RPI teams. They were selected for a 14 seed, an indication of how important SoS is to the committee.
2012 San Diego State is the strangest selection at a 12-seed that might give Idaho some hope in getting that seed. The Aztecs were the only team with an RPI over 65 over the last three years to get a 12-seed. They had a terrible SoS that year as well. The Aztecs may have gotten the benefit of the doubt for having a relatively successful program, and also won 23 of their final 25 games in 2012.
Working in favor of Idaho right now is its SoS of 155. That’s spurred by pre-season games against Gonzaga, California, San Diego and Texas. The WAC schedule will lower that throughout the season, but if Idaho wins its remaining nine games that won’t matter.